Great Britain, great replacement? Census 2021

Parliament Square, London, October 2015

We have seen the data on the so-called 'great replacement' which Westerners are said to be visiting upon themselves: In the U.S., in France, in Belgium, Germany, Sweden.

For our piece on the U.K., we had no choice but to use the 2011 census numbers, as those from 2021 had not yet been published. 

But they have now. So let us shine a light on the latest demographic snapshot of old Blighty.

I. London

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When Britannia ruled the waves, her imperial capital, London, was almost entirely composed of native Britons. Now, three quarters of a century after abandoning her colonies, the city is filling up with the formerly colonized.

London is the demographic beating heart of the country; one Englishman in six lives in its greater metro area. Here is how its ethnic make-up has changed over the last 30 years:

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Let's look at the 33 boroughs of London in more detail.

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Here is its foreign-born population, borough by borough, from 1971 to 2021. (Remember, this does not count foreign-origin people who were born in Britain.)

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The 2021 census gives us a breakdown of the Asian population by borough:

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And its black population by borough:

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II. England's Cities

London is a demographic colossus, but what about the other great population centers of Britain?

(We have here excluded Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, limiting ourselves to English cities only, as that is where ethnic change is most visible.)

Let us take a look at the 2021 ethnic break-down of England's twelve most populous cities.

As for Andrew Whitby's wonderful urban dot-maps, he has unfortunately not updated them for the latest census. We thus present the 2011 versions as an imperfect visual complement to the 2021 data.

(Click for data sources, 2021 ethnic pie graphs)

(Click for image sources, 2011 urban dot-maps)

London

The capital, London, is home to almost 9 million people. As seen above, it has now slipped down to just over one third indigenous Britons:

Birmingham

The U.K.'s second city, Birmingham, is a sprawling metropolis of 1,145,000 in the Midlands region. Industrial powerhouse once upon a time, it today relies largely on a service economy. It is second only to London and Leicester in ethnic replacement, at 43% white British:

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Leeds & Bradford

Rounding out the big three is northern city Leeds. Once a center of the wool industry, today Leeds is the U.K.'s third most peopled city at 812,000.

We show it with its sister city Bradford, less populous but far more ethnically replaced.

Manchester

Manchester was called 'the world's first industrialized city', thanks largely to its immense textile trade. Today it stands at about a half a million population, with a citizenry just under half native British at the last census:

Manchester's 10 boroughs; note Rochdale, home to Pakistani grooming scandal

Sheffield

A center of cutlery-making in Tudor times, Sheffield rose to industrial importance as a steel center. Today it boasts in impressive green belt, with 250 parks and gardens. It has nearly the same population as Manchester, but is ethnically far more indigenous:

Liverpool

Birthplace of the Beatles, Liverpool has long been a dynamic port city for freight as well as passengers. It stands today at just under half a million inhabitants, of which roughly three-quarters are indigenous Brits:

Bristol

Bristol, like Liverpool, is a west coast port city of about half a million people. It too prospered immensely from the colonial sea trade. And like Liverpool, its native population is still at nearly 75%.

Leicester

Leicester is an outlier, a city that welcomed large numbers of Indians expelled from Idi Amin's Uganda in the 1970s. Consequently, at only 368,000 inhabitants (England's 9th-largest), it is the least ethnically British of any metropolis on the island--including London! Indeed, it is the first city where sub-continentals outnumber indigenous Britons:

Coventry

Britain's 'motor city', Coventry, was once a car-making hub in the country's Midlands region. It is today barely over half indigenous British:

Nottingham

City of Robin Hood's legend, once a great textile-making center, Nottingham is today home to 330,000 people. Just over half of them are native British:

Newcastle

Rounding out our survey is Newcastle, far-flung northern fortress become modern ship-building hub. It is today home to 300,000 people, of which three-quarters are native Britons:

(Data sources, 2021 ethnic pie graphs)

(Image sources, 2011 urban dot-maps)

To see the above data in snapshot form (12 most populous cities in England, from most to least ethnically replaced):

Data source

III. Cities outside England

We noted above that in the British Isles, England is the country whose demography is changing fastest.

To prove how true this is, let's take a quick look at some other major population centers in the U.K. (we show the most recent data available):

Glasgow

Scotland's largest city, at 635,000, is still at 82% native British:

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Edinburgh

Scotland's capital stands at 488,000, with a similar indigenous population to that of Glasgow:

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Cardiff

The capital of Wales is home to 363,000 souls, with a similar demography to that of Leeds or Newcastle:

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Belfast

Northern Ireland is a staunch hold-out in the ethnic replacement game. For whatever the reason, its capital has remained overwhelmingly indigenous:

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IV. Global Population

Four of England's biggest metropoles now contain fewer than 50% native Brits. Several more are less than two thirds indigenous.

But outside of the large cities, Great Britain seems to have largely retained its ethnically British character. 

Here is the global ethnic breakdown for England and Wales, 2021:

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But the future belongs, as they say, to those who show up. Here is an ethnic breakdown of newborns in England and Wales, 2019:

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Who will show up for Great Britain's future?

Compared to some of her neighbors on the continent, Britain seems to be far from demographic replacement, particularly outside the large cities.

As a reminder, the demographic situation in Paris:

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And in the rest of France:

(This is roughly a map of newborns who are Arab, black, or Turkish.)

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Or in Brussels:

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And greater Belgium:

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Great Britain, it would seem, has for the moment preserved a people that is, at the national level, three quarters native British. But for newborns, that number falls to fewer than two thirds. 

And in certain large cities, as we have seen, indigenous Britons have plummeted to around one third of the citizenry.

What will those numbers be in 2031? In 2041? Only time will tell.

Thank you for reading.

Earlier:

Who's Replacing Whom? Germany, Belgium, Sweden, U.K.

Who's Replacing Whom? France

Who's Fleeing Whom? U.S. 2020 Census