12 September 2022

Who's Replacing Whom? Western Europe: France

[This piece was originally published on June 30th 2022, but was erased due to a technical glitch. Happily, the Wayback Machine has saved our bacon. Here it is again.]

The recent presidential election in France saw a new face on the scene: That of Eric Zemmour.

His major campaign theme was that France's indigenous population was being replaced by outsiders who are culturally foreign, with the zealous support of the globalist right and the open-borders left.


The name of this transformation? 'The Great Replacement.'

This notion is endorsed explicitly by Eric Zemmour's Reconquest party, and implicitly by Marine LePen's National Rally. Together, these two parties gobbled up 30% of the votes, more than President Macron's centrist Republic on the Move party (28%).


The Great Replacement is an idea referred to as 'far-right' by the mainstream press, implying that it is somehow a marginal notion.


Yet opinion polls in France show that this belief is anything but extreme. No less than sixty-one percent of French voters think that it is a reality.


Are they right?


And what of the rest Europe? And the Anglosphere? 



I. France


1) Non-European Immigration


It is illegal to ask for ethnicity on French census forms. Demographers must find other ways to tease out the reality of population change in France.


Demographer Michèle Tribalat, of the National Demographic Institute, says:  

In 2011, 19.2 % of the total population of metropolitan France are of foreign origin on two generations. Under 60, this proportion is nearing 30 % if we include a third generation.

Demographer Cris Beauchemin, who works at the National Demographic Institute:   

If we take the first, second, and third generations, we can estimate that two people out of five in France are descended from immigrants.

Pascal Blanchard, researcher at France's National Scientific Research Institute (and avowed progressive):   

One quarter of French people are descended from non-European immigrants (most often from the ex-colonies) if we go back three or four generations, and another quarter have at least one grandparent descended from European immigrants.


But to really measure a great replacement, one must look at the population under age 18, those who in twenty or thirty years will be running the show--and having the babies.

The following maps show the under-18 population which has at least one foreign parent, born outside of Europe, both in the 1960s and today. The vast majority from 'outside of Europe' arrive from North Africa (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia), Sub-Saharan Africa, and Turkey.


Be careful! Bear in mind that these maps do not show ALL the immigrant-descended population: Many Arab and African youngsters in France today had both their parents and grandparents born in France.  If the maps included children of third- or fourth-generation Arab/African descendance, these numbers would be much higher.

Here is the greater Paris metro area, where one out of five French people live:

Paris 'intra-muros,' once home to a large white working class, is made up mostly of millionaires and housing projects at this point. A glance at the 2017 map will quickly tell you which is where.

A zoom into two of Paris's suburbs, the infamous Seine Saint-Denis:

...And Val-de-Marne:

France's second city, Marseille, on the Mediterranean coast:

And Paris's third city, Lyon:

But what about France's mid-sized cities? Here is a snapshot of the under-18 population born, or whose parents were born, outside of Europe, in 20 French cities. (Mainly Africa, North Africa and Turkey)


Keep in mind that these stats don't count those whose grandparents or great-grandparents were non-European immigrants—although that describes millions of children in France. So in reality, in many of these cities, the under-18 population is far more non-Euro than the numbers indicate.


But all this data is approximative. Again, due to lack of an ethnic census in France, one must resort to subterfuge to get a read on real population change.


One way has been to look at the number of newborns screened each year for sickle-cell anemia.

These tests are only given to babies born of parents with ethnic roots in Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, India, Greece, Southern Italy, or South America.


But there are vanishingly few immigrants to France from any of those places, except the first three: Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and Turkey. So the stats on sickle-cell testing are more or less a proxy for Blacks, Arabs, and Turks.



Why are we using the data from 2016? Once the national health agency caught on that anti-immigrationists were looking at these numbers, they conveniently stopped publishing them. At the same time, they're now calling for systematic sickle-cell testing of all newborns in France.   Such a program would be both costly and pointless, but no proposal is too far-fetched when it comes to covering up the demographic revolution in progress.



2) Muslim Immigration

The non-indigenous population in France, as we have seen, is clearly growing at breakneck speed.


But what about the Muslim population specifically?

Marseille, France's second city, is a sprawling metropolis on the Mediterranean coast.

Abderrahaman Ghoul, vice president of the regional Muslim council, claims that Marseille counts 300,000 Muslims—that is, 35% of the city's population. The city's 72 mosques are supposedly not enough for all the faithful, who have requested the right to construct several more. 

Lyon was once France's second city, today in third place behind Paris and Marseille. It was a Roman provincial capital, and archeological treasures are unearthed seemingly every time a parking lot is dug up.

The mayor's office recently let slip that roughly 40% of the city's schoolchildren are Muslim.  This is the percentage of parents requesting non-meat meals for their kids in the cafeteria. A city of vegetarians? Not at all, admits the previous mayor Gérard Collomb: 'The meat served in our cafeterias isn't halal, and Muslims refuse to eat it.'


But it's not just France's big cities which are undergoing demographic turbulence. According to the leaders of Muslim organizations in these towns, Mulhouse (on the German border)   is already 30% Muslim, Avignon ('the city of Popes')  35%, and Roubaix (near the Belgian border)  40%.


Baby names

France forbids counting ethnicities, but they do count every baby name given each year. 

The website François de Souche compiles an annual 'Baby Name Barometer' for each region of France, showing how many typically Arab or Muslim names are given each year. (France's Arab population is notorious for refusing to give French names to their kids, even after four generations, unlike East Asian immigrants who do so immediately upon arrival.)


Here is the total for France, 1969 to 2019:

Image source

Here is a map with the 2020 rate, by region:



The counties making up the greater Paris area tell an interesting story over time:


The Parisian suburb of Seine Saint-Denis, home to 1.7 million people, shows an amazing transformation over 40 years:


Data sources: 1980 and 2020


According to the National Statistics Institute, immigrant fertility in France is at 2.73 children per women, while for native French women that is 1.80. But 'immigrant' is defined as a woman born in a different country. And 'native French' includes any women born in France, even of Arab or African descent. So the fertility rate for ethnically French women is likely a bit lower.


Muslim leaders themselves vaunt their immense numbers. Ahmet Ogras, president of the French Muslim Council (and ethnic Turk), declared in a recent radio interview:

'Today we have more than 10 million Muslims in France. [Out of 65 million citizens.] When I met an Algerian counterpart, he told me there are more than 6 million Algerian-descended French citizens. There are more than 3.5 million Moroccan-descended French citizens. There are 800,000 Turk-descended, and 800,000 Tunisian-descended. 
We're at even more than 10 million. Today you can't underestimate us, we're at 10 million. When you walk down the street in Paris, just look at the ratio [of non-whites to whites].'

Muslim politicians aren't offended by the idea of a 'Great Replacement'--they're openly celebrating it. From the UFMD (Union of French Muslim Democrats):

*     *     *

France, it has thus been shown, is marching blithely towards demographic replacement in the decades to come.

But what of her neighbors?

To be continued...


M.G. said...

The Wayback Machine has graciously saved the comments on the original post, which I have copied and posted below. Sorry about the wonky formatting. Part 1:


exlib said...

2/7/22 9:26 AM
M.G. said...

Over indeed, and it may be the first time in history a people has welcomed in its replacements with open arms.

Thanks for stopping by!

2/7/22 8:10 PM
Unknown said...
Thank you for publishing all of this data in one place. I heard of all of these statistics, but they were scattered across different articles. It might become possible to estimate French demography in the future through nationwide genomics for personalized medicine: virtually every baby's genome will be sequenced 100+-fold within the next couple of decades, I think, and will become part of publicly available genomic data through biobanks, public research institutes, etc. Every knowledgeable person will be able to find genomic ancestry that way. Of course, the data in this article is already comprehensive, reliable, and varied enough to converge on approximately the same result: France will probably be majority non-white by 2050-2060.

3/7/22 1:31 PM
Karl said...
Funny how all answers to the question about the great replacement (image 6, if I counted correctly) started with "will". Did nobody answer "is happening"?

My guess is the answer "is happeing" also occurred, but was not accepted

4/7/22 3:07 PM
M.G. said...

I agree that in the future genomics will be able to tell the real demographic story in fine-grained detail, but this:

will become part of publicly available genomic data through biobanks, public research institutes

is unlikely in France. Their privacy laws about DNA are much stronger than those in the U.S. Self-tests like '23 and me' are simply illegal in France—You are not allowed to test your own DNA and uploading such information onto the internet is strictly forbidden.

Even paternity tests are illegal here! Whoever's written down as the father on the birth certificate remains the father in the eyes of the law, even if it's somehow genetically proven that it's not him.

France will probably be majority non-white by 2050-2060.

Of this there can be no serious doubt—Unless there are mass deportations of a kind not seen since the last world war.

M.G. said...

The Wayback Machine has graciously saved the comments on the original post, which I have copied and posted below. Sorry about the wonky formatting. Part 2:

5/7/22 9:11 PM
M.G. said...

De Gaulle was famously lucid on this question, though his quotes are now buried out of sheer embarrassment (how could our national hero have said such things?).

As the French Empire entered its twilight, some people were pushing to declare all its inhabitants 'French.' De Gaulle ridiculed such a notion:

Do you think the French body politic can absorb ten million Muslims, who'll tomorrow be twenty million and after that forty million? If all the Arabs and Berbers of Algeria were considered Frenchmen, how to stop them from settling in our country, when our standard of living is so much higher? My village will no longer be called 'Colombey-of-the-two-churches' (Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises), but 'Colombey-of-the-two-mosques'!

In 1959 when made this flight-of-fancy prediction, there were, in all of France, four mosques. Today that number is over 2500.

As it turns out, they didn't need to declare all Algerians 'Frenchmen'—they just needed to let them immigrate as guest workers and then bring over 30 relatives each on 'family reunification visas.' This has been going on since the 1970s, and the results are clear as day: Just as De Gaulle predicted, France is cooked.

5/7/22 9:37 PM
Robertus said...
"As it turns out, they didn't need to declare all Algerians 'Frenchmen'—they just needed to let them immigrate as guest workers and then bring over 30 relatives each on 'family reunification visas.' This has been going on since the 1970s, and the results are clear as day: Just as De Gaulle predicted, France is cooked."

Deporting anyone who isn't an official "Frenchman" yet may be a good start.

Who in France still wants them to come, and why do they have that power to make it so if the majority of the citizens of France don't want this?

10/7/22 7:50 AM
hbd chick said...
haven’t stopped by for too long of a time! very sorry about that. life (and twitter) got in the way.

thanks for this post! i just tweeted it out on twitter. glad to see you’re still blogging. :-)

11/7/22 1:50 PM
Anonymous said...
How can any man want to fight for a culture and nation that widely supports cuckolding men and celebrates female infidelity? Everyone with an even semi-functional moral compass should be extremely excited about the islamic takeover

16/7/22 7:19 AM
Anonymous said...
The white man in the west no longer has any will to fight, reduced to a being a cuckold dildo with his wife encouraged to cheat on him. Paternity testing was even mostly banned in France. Where is your freedom and basic rights? Is this what you are fighting to defend?

Now the new "western values" will result in the mutilation your children's genitals to get the children to "switch genders", is this what you want?

Islam is closer to real Christian values than the modern LGBTQ+ holocaust religion will ever be, so you White men might as well embrace Islam and learn to be real men again.

M.G. said...

The Wayback Machine has graciously saved the comments on the original post, which I have copied and posted below. Sorry about the wonky formatting. Part 3:

16/7/22 8:39 AM
Anonymous said...
"embrace Islam and learn to be real men again"

TV makes people temporarily dumb but cousin marriage does it permanently

19/7/22 3:32 AM
Anonymous said...
Also at the rate AI and genetic engineering is progressing, we need to take them it into account in any of these analyses. How much longer will any of this even matter? Not many generations most likely. So why worry about replacement when the real replacement has not even begun?
If AI makes us extinct it'll still beat all of these new "western values", inshallah

19/7/22 4:56 AM
Robertus said...

"Islam is closer to real Christian values than the modern LGBTQ+ holocaust religion will ever be, so you White men might as well embrace Islam and learn to be real men again."

Religion isn't the problem here. A religion is the way it is because people are that way.
Converting white men to Islam will make an Islam that is lgbtq friendly.
21/7/22 2:51 PM
Anonymous said...
White men are not Islam-friendly. Jews are.

21/7/22 2:58 PM
M.G. said...

Like in so many countries in the West, mass immigration was decided on high without the consent of the governed.

France imported thousands of guest workers to help reconstruct the country after the war; they were originally meant to go back (to Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco).

But many found France to their liking, stayed on, and in the 1970s a 'family reunification' policy was decided which allowed those thousands to become, today, millions.

The attendant social chaos explains the inexorable rise of the nationalist right these last twenty years in the person of Jean-Marie Le Pen and today his daughter, Marine, and just this year the fantastic Eric Zemmour.

24/7/22 10:37 PM
M.G. said...
hbd chick--

Long time no see! Thanks for the tweet, great to see you here.

Happy trails!

24/7/22 10:37 PM
M.G. said...
Anon 4:51--

RE: 'Retardation', 'idiot'... The commenting policy here asks that we avoid 'gratuitous insults.' Please find a way to say what you have to say without being disrespectful.

Thank you.

24/7/22 10:38 PM