01 June 2021

Who Is Fleeing Whom?

 Image source

Nearly ten years ago, after the 2010 U.S. Census results came out, we did a deep-dive into the shifts in ethnic make-up of America's cities.

At this moment, the full 2020 Census figures are being crunched. As soon as they are out, we shall update this piece to reflect the new face of these metropolises, some of which we suspect will have changed radically in the last ten years.

As we wait for the new numbers, let's revisit the data up until 2010... and predict what changes are about to be revealed.

*     *     * 

Why did we write this piece? Though black criminality in North America has always surpassed that of Euros, separating oneself from Afro neighbors was not difficult for the first 350 years of British North America / the United States.  Even in the North, segregation in housing was permitted de facto where it was not de jure.


The 'Great Migration,' waves of Afros moving from the South to the North, began in earnest in 1910, with its second wave after WWII (1945).


However, the flight of Euro-Americans out of the cities did not truly begin until Blacks were free to live where they pleased-- the 1960s.  Since then, a sort of merry-go-round has ensued:  Whites, suffering under Afro dysfunction, flee to suburbs, only to be pursued by the Talented Tenth fleeing same.  The latter are followed, as night follows day,  by the Untalented Nine-Tenths, who promptly re-create the urban hellscapes they left behind. Euro-Americans are forced to pack up, and the musical chairs begin again.  Section 8 vouchers have revved this carousel up to warp speed.


We can in fact watch the flight unfold before our eyes via U.S. Census numbers. 

We give the figures from 1960, just before Segregation ended. 

We then fast-forward twenty years to 1980 to see what the first wave of 'White Flight' has wrought.  

Finally, we give the most recent figures (2010), which contain some surprises, especially re: Hispanics, who did not even exist as a census category two generations ago.  

For selected cities, we have also given the figures from 1910, before the Great Migration got underway.  Asians have been included where their historic presence has been strongest.


So: Who's fleeing whom?



 1. The Midwest

We start with the Midwest, industrial center and destination of choice for the Great Migrators:


(Detroit is the largest American city to be over 80% black, as well as the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.)

(2020 Census sneak preview says that Illinois is one of the few states to have lost citizens over the last ten years. Is Chicago the reason?)


(One of the few majority-white big cities in its region)

(St. Louis had the highest murder rate in the U.S. in 2019)

(K.C. has the 8th-highest murder rate in the nation as of 2019)

(Des Moines and Minneapolis, two reputed 'Whitopias.' Will they stay so? Minneapolis gives pause...)



 2. The East Coast

The great cities of the East Coast tell us their demographic story:

(The great push by Whites to gentrify NYC by pushing out minorities... has it worked? We shall soon see)

(Newark was decimated by white flight after the 1960s riots)

(Philly is one of the most dangerous big cities in America)

(A huge gentrifying push is underway in D.C...what hath it wrought?)

(Baltimore consistently ranks in the top 3 most murderous U.S. cities) 


We've included two far north-eastern cities, considered some of the 'whitest' in the country.  Will these enclaves stay that way?



 3. The South

The South has lived a different racial story since colonial times.  Home to plantation slavery and thus to most of the U.S.'s Blacks before 1910, she lost millions in the following decades to the industrial centers of the North.


(The demographic [and crime] differences between the above two Tennessee cities have been remarked upon.)

(Paul Kersey has well covered the racial merry-go-round between city and suburbs in this 'city too busy to hate.')

(In 2011 Birmingham underwent what was then the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. In 2019, it was the 3rd most murderous U.S. city.)

(The Big Easy had the 7th-highest murder rate in 2019)


 Though technically a Southern city, Miami is becoming more Latin American than heritage American:


 4. The Great Basin

Home to some of the last real 'Whitopias' in the country, the Great Basin states are nonetheless diversifying in their way, especially due to Hispanics:

(How far will the hispanifying of Denver go?)

5. The Southwest

The Southwest is of course under immense demographic pressure from Latin America.  This region lives its own story, with parts of Anglo-America perhaps already extinct here.  (As the 'Hispanic' census category did not exist then, all pre-1980 'White' figures must be assumed to contain Hispanic presence.)


(These two cities are said to be undergoing waves of Chinese and Indian influx. What will the 2020 numbers tell us?)


 6. The West Coast

The West Coast is home to a centuries-old Asian presence which seems to have jumped after the 1965 Immigration Act.  What will be the fallout if current trends continue?


(Will the ethnic cleansing of L.A.'s Blacks by its Hispanic gangs continue apace?)


San Francisco and San Jose: Headed for a Euro-Asian overclass and an Afro-Hispanic underclass?

(Wealthy Whites and Asians are said to be fleeing the city due to leftist mismanagement... Is it true?)

(Silicon Valley's capital is the richest city in the U.S., and seems to be pricing out Blacks almost entirely.)

(An epicenter for the recent spate of black-on-Asian violence)

The Whites of the Pacific Northwest have long sung the praises of people of color, from afar. Are the objects of their affection finally moving into their cities? Stay tuned...

 *     *     *

A nation is not a stretch of ground; it's a people.  The demography of the urban U.S. is changing faster than it ever has.  Housing policy, criminal justice, immigration policy have all brought us here. Will the face of the nation change irrevocably in this century?

We will update all numbers just as soon as the U.S. Census leashes them upon us. 

Watch this space...


Anonymous said...

Just a heads up, a couple of the hyperlinks are broken.

"...Tennessee cities have been remarked upon." under Nashville,


"...only to be pursued by the Talented Tenth fleeing same." near the start of the article.

guy gadbois said...

Im curious as to what the 'graphic' for Oklahoma in the lead illustration is supposed to be? A cow patty?!?!?!

Anonymous said...

The Talented Tenth from the wayback machine.


M.G. said...

Anon 12:51--

You're absolutely right and I apologize, part of this text was copied from an older piece before I started systematically archiving the links.

All is fixed now. Thanks for the comment!

M.G. said...

guy gadbois--

It appears you're right. Oklahoma is home to the world cow-patty tossing championships:

'Official Cow Chip Throw rules stipulate that the chips must be more than six inches in diameter. Novice throwers generally went with the “bigger is better rule,” selecting the largest chips they could find. Veterans, though, looked for ones smaller in diameter but with some heft to them and as perfectly round as possible. They know that larger, drier chips will break apart mid-air, and they shake them with one hand to test their durability before picking, a move the rest of us mimicked.

And they’ll tell you, if it’s your first time, that licking your fingers between throws (you get two chances) will give you good luck and a better grip.'

Looks like it was the third week in April, we've missed our chance for this year.

Anonymous said...

Those Cleveland and Detroit plots remind me of this classic.


The New York stats speak to the massive decline in the 70s/80s that has since been memory-holed that was, in retrospect, not unlike the causes of declines elsewhere in urban America, black post-war migration. There was a really good BBC documentary on it called 'Nightmare In The City That Never Sleeps' which detailed the social decline that led up to the massive orgy of violence when the New York blackout of 1977 happened. It also detailed the collapse of New York's incipient social democratic regime from this mass drain and social dysfunction which led the city to be at the mercy of state and federal Chicago school types who force NYC to abolish most of it in order to get a bailout.

Unfortunately you can't find that documentary anywhere now and it was never made available for sale. And given it's topics, will likely never be reissued.

Anonymous said...

Here is a video detailing how the looting of 1977 created hiphop from so much DJ equipment being looted.


M.G. said...

Anon 1:58--

Nice tourism video for Cleveland! (I am sorry to hear their fish have AIDS.) There does seem to be some kind of tipping point where above 50% Afro population, a city seems to spiral quickly downwards. The only exceptions I see are Atlanta and Washington D.C.

That NYC black-out documentary is nowhere to be found, here's the intro only:


It definitely seems to have been scrubbed from every corner of the internet, what a pity.

Thanks for this link, it's a gem:


Loved Geraldo talking about jumping up on a truck and telling everyone to disperse! 'I never imagined the veneer of civilization was so thin.' Welcome to Afro-America, Mr Rivera.

guy gadbois said...

@M.G. Thanx. Isnt that just great? Oklahoma represented by cattle dung... not saying that itys not kinda true these days, but for DECADES, Tulsa was the Oil Capitol of the World, so why couldnt there have been derricks or something? Oklahoma has been an aviation leader in the past. More astronauts came from Oklahoma at one time than any other state. [many moons ago at least] Maybe Cowboys? The longest stretch of Rt 66? Why one must ask...
Oh well, in the grand scheme of things and considering the article the graphic headed, its a small thing...

Coyote said...

One thing that I am curious about is this: Haitians are only marginally more homicidal than Americans are even though Haiti is much more black than the US is. For that matter, *some* black African countries, such as Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and especially Ghana, are relatively non-homicidal by global standards as well--roughly comparable to the US, or even significantly better than the US in Ghana's case. But US blacks and some other heavily black places, such as the US Virgin Islands and South Africa, are EXTREMELY homicidal. What exactly explains this huge discrepancy? Which environmental factors in the latter places are making their blacks MUCH more homicidal than in places such as Haiti, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Ghana? Any thoughts on this?

But Yeah, as someone who lives in a city that is only 2% black, I think that it's a good rule of thumb that the best places to live in generally have a single-digit black percentage. So, below 10.00%. There might be occasional exceptions to this rule (Frisco, Texas, for instance--barely), but that's the general rule to go by.

I also suspect, as you yourself pointed out, that the fear of black crime is a HUGE factor in what motivates a lot of whites (and possibly other groups, such as Asians) in not wanting to live around a lot of blacks. Similarly, I suspect that concerns about undisciplined ghetto black kids might have been a HUGE factor in white opposition to forced busing back in the days--specifically in the 1970s. The only way that forced busing could have actually "worked" in any meaningful way would have been if our elites would have been prohibited from sending their own kids to fancy private kids where the only black kids they would have had to interact with would have been Talented Tenth black kids. When our elites want to cherry-pick their diversity but insist on the proles getting diversity of the unpleasant kid, well, the proles are STRONGLY likely to vehemently resist this!

sunny-dee said...

Re Oklahoma's picture, I was hoping it was rose rocks:

I feel like my beloved home state deserves more than dung!

Re homicide rates: Haiti's homicide rate is double the US's. There was a statistical downward blip in 2018, but it's generally between 9.4 - 10 / 100,000, where the US is right around 5.

icr said...

My hunch (only a hunch) is that Haiti and much of Sub-Saharan Africa don't have much of a justice system so your main worry if you commit a murder or other violent crime is lynching by outraged citizens or vengeance by the family or clan of your victim. I do recall a blogger (I don't recall his name or the name of his blog) who related stories of vigilante lynchings of criminals when he was a whitewater guide somewhere in Africa. He's originally an Australian but now lives in Netherlands.

GeorgeTheElder said...

I was looking for the dot maps for the 2010 census. The NYT had a fantastic interactive map of the entire country, but it used flash player and so it is no longer active. Hopefully someone will do the same for the 2020 census and add previous census reports. In the meantime, there are excellent maps and detailed analysis at other websites for selected cities. https://statisticalatlas.com/place/Illinois/Chicago/Race-and-Ethnicity

Anonymous said...

It's August 30tthhh. C'mon c'mon where are those new census stats?