Islam: Why We Culturally Profile It

(We are offline due to a much-needed research period at the moment, so we've decided to re-publish some earlier pieces you might have missed the first time.)

Paris, Nov. 13, 2015: The Indian summer meant many were enjoying a meal out on the patio

Four years ago this week, France experienced its "9-11": The Bataclan terror attacks. Shortly after, we published this body of data on why, exactly, Europeans are becoming so wary of the mass of Muslim immigrants streaming into their countries.

We publish it again on this terrible anniversary, with the footnote that all of the tendencies described therein have only intensified in the intervening four years.

We hope you appreciate this food for thought.

The Europe to come?

[Re-post, original post here.]

At the height of the Trayvon Martin affair, we met a young Afro-Canadian who strongly objected to being racially profiled. Drawing on the pool of data at our disposal, we presented, to the best of our ability, the reasons such profiling exists.

Today, as hundreds of thousands of Muslim migrants pour into Europe to claim asylum, profiling again rears its ugly head. Not racial/ethnic this time, but religious:

At least five European countries have signaled that they prefer to grant asylum only to Christian refugees flooding the continent from the Middle East, not to Muslims.

“I think we have a right to decide that we do not want a large number of Muslim people in our country,” Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said.  ... “Refugees from a completely different cultural background would not be in a good position in the Czech Republic,” said Czech President Milos Zeman.

 Lodz, Poland, September 2015

On what are these fears based? Ignorance, prejudice? We have been told for years that immigration is a gift, an economic boost, an injection of fresh blood, and that our new guests will culturally enrich our lives with their differentness (all while assimilating seamlessly thanks to their sameness). We at TWCS have thus decided to take a deeper look at the data.

But is Islam a religion, a culture, or a civilization? Has it genetically changed its adherents over time like Christianity has (cousin marriage enforced vs. forbidden)? In the absence of any genetic connection, does it culturally push its believers to certain behaviors? Could these beliefs and behaviors really, as the critics charge, prevent their assimilation into the West?

In a word--is this cultural profiling of Muslims based on fact or fantasy?

I. MUSLIMS IN THEIR OWN SOCIETIES

Market in Marrakech, Morocco

History has shown again and again that when we migrate, we tend to re-create our old societies wherever we wash ashore. And the more of us there are, the more our little colony tends to resist change. So to know if the beliefs and behaviors of our future co-citizens will line up closely with ours, what better way then to ask them? A slew of polling outfits have done just that. Let's see what they have to say.

A reminder: The oldest big Muslim groups in the West come from Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

The last 15-20 years have also seen a big jump in asylum seekers from Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria. 

These are thus the countries on which we will do our very best to focus, as much as the data allows.

1) Different opinions on the role of government

France's prime minister recently announced that Islam is 'totally compatible with democracy.' (We presume he means the liberal French variety and not the North Korean one.) What is the evidence that citizens of the Muslim world see democracy in the same way we do?

We begin with Pew, who has done extensive polling on the question.

As in most places in the world, democracy is aspirational:

 Data source

But just as 'democracy' looks different in England than it does in Italy than it does in Cameroon, the average Muslim's idea of 'democracy' may be quite different than ours:

Data source

How do Muslims feel about imposing religious law on their fellows?

Images source

About national feeling versus religious feeling?   (note strong outlier U.S.)

Image source

The World Values Survey results can allow us to try to make comparisons between Muslim cultures and our own. From the 2009 and 2014 data waves, on the subject of democracy:  

Religious leaders should interpret laws vs. 

Army should overthrow bad government

• "It is an essential characteristic of democracy that religious authorities ultimately interpret the laws." (WVS) (1-10, where 1 = "not at all essential to democracy," 10 = "essential to democracy"; % Respondents who said "9" or "10" only)

• "It is an essential characteristic of democracy that the army takes over when the government is incompetent." (WVS) (1-10, where 1 = "not at all essential to democracy," 10 = "essential to democracy"; % Respondents who said "9" or "10" only)

Data source  (click image to enlarge)

It appears, then, that many Muslims may have different ideas than us about the role of government.

What about the role of women and men in society?

2) Different opinions on Women and Men

Englischer Garten, Munich, Germany

NW Euros' societies are those where women tend to have the most freedom and autonomy, and this has been true for centuries.

 Data source

Are our Muslim guests likely to feel at home in such an environment?

What, for example, do they think about sex segregation at work?

 

 Image source

 About a wife's relation to her husband? 

Images source

To better compare our nations to Muslim ones, we can look at World Values Survey results. From the 2009 and 2014 data waves, on the subject of women and men: 

Men are better in Politics vs. Boys deserve University

• "On the whole, men make better political leaders than women do."  (WVS) (1-4, where 1 = "strongly agree," 4 = "strongly disagree"; % Respondents who said "1" only)

• "A university education is more important for a boy than for a girl."  (WVS)  (1-4, where 1 = "strongly agree," 4 = "strongly disagree"; % Respondents who said "1" only)

Data source (click image to enlarge)

 Men deserve jobs more than women vs. Democracy = equal rights for women

• "When jobs are scarce, men should have more right to a job than women."  (WVS) (Agree or Disagree; % Respondents who said said "Agree" only)

• "It is an essential characteristic of democracy that women have the same rights as men." (WVS) (1-10, where 1 = "not at all essential to democracy," 10 = "essential to democracy"; % Respondents who said "9" or "10" only)

Data source (click image to enlarge)

Having seen some Muslims' views on the roles of government and of women, let us take up a thorny question in any multicultural society: Morality and religion.

We know coastal Americans' disdain for the conservative Christian...

 ...So how well will secular Westerners blend with this new flavor of religious conservative?

3) Different opinions on morality and religion

80 lashes for adultery in Qazvin, Iran

   a) Morality

For us in the West, theft may be a crime, but adultery and apostasy are today seen as simple lifestyle choices. And among Muslims?

Data source

How do they approach such questions as abortion, homosexuality, intoxicants?

Images  source

To see how our societies line up with Muslim ones on morality questions, here are some results from the 2009 and 2014 World Values Survey data waves:

Homosexuality is justifiable vs. Divorce is justifiable

• "Homosexuality can never be justified."  (WVS)  (1-10, where 1 = "never justified," 10 = "always justified"; % Respondents who said "1" or "2" only)

• "Divorce can never be justified."  (WVS)  (1-10, where 1 = "never justified," 10 = "always justified"; % Respondents who said "1" or "2" only)

Data source (click image to enlarge)

Homosexual neighbors vs. Unmarried couple neighbors

• "I would not like a homosexual as a neighbor."  (WVS) (Agree or Disagree; % Respondents who said said "Agree" only)

• "I would not like an unmarried couple as a neighbor."  (WVS) (Agree or Disagree; % Respondents who said said "Agree" only)

Data source (click image to enlarge)

   b) Religion

As far as spirituality goes, most Western countries like to keep the religious and public spheres distinct.  Our own centuries-long bloodbaths over religion led us to enforce strict tolerance of each other's faiths, without imposing any one on the whole.

In addition, for good or for ill, secularism has taken hold deeply in our countries. Many of them can properly be called 'post-Christian.' In such an atmosphere, will newcomers from Muslim countries likely be a 'good fit'?

Pew has polled extensively on the question of how attached Muslims feel to their faith:

 Image source

On the question of 'marrying out' of the faith, prized behavior in a tolerant, multicultural society:

Data source

On the subject of fundamentalism, a recent trend strongly affecting Muslims both at home and in the West:

Data source

The World Values Survey has also polled on religion and tradition. From the 2009 and 2014 data waves:

Teaching Religion to Children vs. Importance of Tradition

• "An important quality that children be encouraged to learn at home is religious faith."  (WVS) (Agree or Disagree; % Respondents who said said "Agree" only)

• "Tradition is important to me; to follow the customs handed down by my religion or family."  (WVS)  (1-6, where 1 = "strongly agree," 6 = "strongly disagree"; % Respondents who said "1" only)

Data source (click image to enlarge)

(See also Emil Kirkegaard.)

Having considered the role of government, men's and women's roles, and religion/morality, let us now turn to out-group relations.

4) Different opinions on outsiders

Sydney, Australia, 2014

Out-group empathy, or 'commonweal orientation' is, as we have seen, one of the qualities that make Western societies so appealing. High trust tends to grease the wheels of civicness, leading to clean streets and low corruption. Low-trust immigrants, though, can throw a wrench in these works.

So what do we know about out-group trust levels in the Muslim world? From Pew:

Data source

Image source

We can get a more planetary picture from comparisons in the World Values Survey. Where are the most high- and low-trust places in the world? Should this inform our choices about immigration policy? From the 2009 and 2014 data waves:

General trust level

• "Do you think most people would try to take advantage of you if they got a chance, or would they try to be fair?" (WVS) (1-10 where 1 = "people would take advantage," 10 = "people would try to be fair"; % Respondents who said "1" only)

• "How much do you trust people you meet for the first time?" (WVS) (1-4 where 1 = completely, 4 = not at all; % Respondents who said "4" only)

Data source (click image to enlarge)

Corruption vs. Familism

• Transparency International Survey, Perceived Corruption Index (1-10 where 1 = very corrupt, 10 = very clean; entire spectrum shown)

• "One of my main goals in life has been to make my parents proud." (WVS) (1-4 where 1 = agree strongly, 4 = disagree strongly; % Respondents who said "1" only) 

Data source 1 , source 2 (click image to enlarge)

Individualism vs. Familism

• Geert Hofstede's Individualism Index (1-100 where 1 = not individualistc, 100= very individualistic; entire spectrum shown)

• "One of my main goals in life has been to make my parents proud." (WVS) (1-4 where 1 = agree strongly, 4 = disagree strongly; % Respondents who said "1" only)

Data source 1, source 2  (click image to enlarge)

Trust vs. Familism

• "One of my main goals in life has been to make my parents proud." (WVS) (1-4 where 1 = agree strongly, 4 = disagree strongly; % Respondents who said "1" only)

• "Do you think most people would try to take advantage of you if they got a chance, or would they try to be fair?" (WVS) (1-10 where 1 = "people would take advantage," 10 = "people would try to be fair"; % Respondents who said "1" only)

Data source (click image to enlarge)

Corruption vs. Trust

• Transparency International Survey Perceived Corruption Index (1-10 where 1 = very corrupt, 10 = very clean; entire spectrum shown)

• "How much do you trust people you meet for the first time?" (WVS) (1-4 where 1 = completely, 4 = not at all; % Respondents who said "4" only)

Data source 1 , source 2 (click image to enlarge)

Even a cursory glance at these last five graphs will show us a veritable gulf in out-group trust levels between Muslim nations and the West. We cannot overestimate how crucial similar commonweal orientation levels are for smooth inter-group functioning in a multicultural society. Political leaders ignore this at their peril.

So we have seen the views of Muslims in their own countries, from Africa to East Asia, on civilizational questions such as government, women, religion/morality, and out-group trust.

Now let us turn to the opinions and behavior of Muslims who have taken up residence in Western nations.

II. MUSLIMS IN OUR SOCIETIES

Fans of the 'proposition nation' say that in any case it doesn't matter what foreigners believe in their own countries, because once they set foot on our magic soil they will quickly take up our mores and habits. Does the evidence back this up?

 

Molenbeek, Brussels, Belgium, 2015

1) Different social demands

One aspect of having a large Muslim minority that Americans may not be aware of is the demands. They do not come at once. They do not come until the group feels its strength in numbers. But at that point, they start to flow thick and fast.

Stratford, England, 2011

In W. Europe, just to take a few examples, Muslims have demanded the right to

• sex segregate swimming pools,
• provide prayer rooms at work,
• mask their faces in public,
• cut the clitorises off their young daughters, 
• force young teen girls to marry,
• perform virginity tests on brides-to-be, 
• set up religious law courts in secular countries, 
• outlaw satire of their religion or anti-Muslim blasphemy,
• remove pork and 'non-halal' meat from fast food joints, school cafeterias, military barracks, and farmers' markets,
• ban dogs from public spaces (and, if refused, have poisoned them en masse), 
• refuse to let seeing-eye dogs in their taxis or buses, 
• refuse to ring up your pork or alcohol products,
• remove all crosses from cemeteries during Muslim burials, 
• make companies effectively run at half-speed for the entire month of Ramadan (when Muslims eat nothing from sunup to sundown).

This list is far from exhaustive; it is only meant as an amuse-bouche to whet one's appetite for the inevitable main course.

Rue Polonceau, Paris, 2015 

What is perhaps most distressing about this is that by all accounts, most Muslims in Europe are not especially fundamentalist.

In France, which boasts the largest Muslim population on the continent, they have been widely polled on their beliefs. While more devout than the secular French, a majority of citizens of Islamic background say they are 'not practicing':

Image source

Mosque attendance is not very common:

Image source

Neither is veiling:

Image source

Still, two thirds claim to shun alcohol and pork, and to fast for Ramadan:

Image source

How, then, can a community which prides themselves on their 'moderation' be responsible for so much social pressure in countries where they are only 5-10% of the population, and in which they have only recently arrived?

This infographic from The Economist may tell us more than it intends to:

Image source 

Why do Europeans so widely overestimate their Muslim populations? The Economist-approved answer may be 'they're bigots,' but we find it more likely that these newcomers, despite their low numbers and 'moderate' majority, have a unique way of getting under their hosts' skin in their public spaces. We would be very surprised, for example, if Europeans overestimated their Chinese communities in this way.

But frustrating as they can be, social demands are not the only element that drives negative sentiment about Muslims in Europe.

2) Different crime rates

Catcalling cam in Brussels: Not a 'man' problem but a 'Muslim' one

This strong feeling of apart-ness can also, sadly, lead to widespread social dysfunction. Europeans often complain that their Muslim immigrants commit outsized levels of crime. Is there any truth to this charge?

As no two countries measure immigrant delinquence in exactly the same way, we've done the best we can to show relative Muslim criminality all around Europe, using the most recent numbers available to us.  (Click on any image to enlarge.)

a) Norway

Data source (from Norwegian original report)

b) Sweden

Data source (from Swedish original report)

c) Denmark

Data source (from Danish original report)

d) Switzerland

Data source (from Swiss original article)

e) The U.K.

Data source 

f) France

As we have seen, ethnic or national-origin numbers for France are hard to come by. By scouring the available data, we've found the following clues:

For the prison population in France, 2014:  

Data source

For Paris, a comparison between (1) high-immigrant neighborhoods and (2) high-crime neighborhoods, controlling for (3) population density (click to enlarge):

Data source (Paris): Demographics, Crime, Population density

For youthful offenders in Paris, Hugues Lagrange has found data on national origin and parents' occupation:

Data source: LaGrange, Déni des Cultures

As well as national origin and one- or two-parent families:

Data source: LaGrange, Déni des Cultures

g) Sexual Crime

Due to its sensitive nature, we have chosen to give sexual violence its own category. Again, statistics are gathered differently in each country, and we've presented the most recent data available to us, choosing to focus on Scandinavia:

Data source (in Norwegian)

Data source (in Swedish)

Data source (in Danish)

All crime is troubling, but this heightened sexual violence, in most cases targeting native women, is obviously extremely disturbing to European host populations.

These immigrant crime rates, in some cases many multiples higher than that of the natives, are all the more more puzzling in that many of their countries of origin are not seen as particularly high-crime. A sampling:

Data source 

Social scientists such as Hugues Lagrange in France and Nicolai Sennels in Denmark have pointed out the sharp cultural mismatch happening in Europe's banlieues.

In their own countries, Muslims organically create systems of social and legal controls that suit them. These tend to revolve around the values they hold dear, such as strong patriarchy, harsh punishment, and shame-based rather than guilt-based social sanction.

When young Muslims find themselves plucked from this setting and plunked down in a small colony within a larger society that doesn't at all share their values, the disorientation can be fatal (especially in the 2nd generation). It can lead them down a path of crime they wouldn't necessarily have trod in their home country, where they'd be nestled in a system created for and by people like themselves. (See also Peter Frost and JayMan.)

France 2015: Over 100 cars a day set on fire

This sense of alienation and culture clash may also contribute to our third point--higher levels of welfare use.

3) Different welfare use

A constant complaint among western Europeans has been that Muslim immigrants make disproportionate use of their generous welfare programs. Is it true?

a) Sweden

Numbers on employment rates and immigrant welfare budgets from Sweden:

Image source

Image source

b) The U.K.

Data source

c) Germany

Data source

d) France

'Sensitive Urban Zones' are the neighborhoods in France marked by, among other things, concentrated public housing. Their demographics differ a fair bit from those of the country at large: 

Data source

Here are French public housing numbers broken down by immigrant origin:

Image source

 French unemployment rate according to immigrant origin: 

Data source

4) Different educational outcomes

Americans are well aware of the social strife born of 'the gap' caused by low-performing minority groups. Europeans have also been troubled by the persistent scholarly under-performance of their Muslim immigrants.

 a) Scandinavia

Numbers for Scandinavia on upper secondary completion and international PISA scoring:

Image source 

Source: Anatoly Karlin 

b) England 

Data source

c) Germany

Data source 

d) France

These numbers are not collected at the national level, but Hugues Lagrange has found data on 6th and 9th grade standardized testing for Paris:

Data source: LaGrange, Déni des Cultures

Data source: LaGrange, Déni des Cultures

As well as national-level data on college education:

Data source: LaGrange, Déni des Cultures

Such inter-group gaps may seem not so important, but as we know in the U.S., over the long term they run the risk of creating intractable social strife.




We have thus seen that in their own countries, Muslims tend to hold beliefs contrary to those reigning in the West, and that when they settle in our countries, their assimilation process can seem to be distressingly slow. 

*     *     *

Neukölln, Berlin, Germany, 2010

Germany's Angela Merkel has said that 'Islam belongs to Germany'; UK's David Cameron that 'Muslim values are British values.' Paris's mayor claims that 'Ramadan is part of France's cultural heritage' and France's prime minister that Islam is 'totally compatible with democracy and women's rights.' Barack Obama has even declared that Islam has been 'woven into the fabric of our country since its founding.'

Mantes-la-Jolie, Paris, France, 2015

On the contrary, as we have seen, there is a real civilizational divide between what we think and what Muslims in their homelands think about the proper place of government, women, religion, and morality in public life. They also show far lower levels of out-group trust than we do in the West.

And when they come to our countries, it is often with the hope that we change our habits and customs, not the other way round. This can unsurprisingly rub their hosts the wrong way.

Tower Hamlets, London, UK, 2014

And despite a bourgeois class who both adopt western values and obey the law, there are a great many who fall prey to social dysfunction.  The latter tend to commit more crime, use more welfare, and do less well in school than their hosts. This patchwork of anti-social behavior and rejection of Western values has made Muslims undesirable immigrants in the eyes of many.

Muslim riots in Stockholm, Sweden, 2013

We don't pretend to know how much of this equation is genes and how much is culture. Are we seeing genetic predispositions for low impulse control, low out-group trust, low abstract reasoning ability in some of these groups?  Was Islam adopted in the first place by particular ethnies because it was congenial to their character?  Has inbreeding intensified certain of their traits over the centuries? (See HBD Chick and JayMan.)

From Korotayev's 'Parallel-Cousin Marriage, Islamization, and Arabization'

Such feedback loops can be devilishly hard to pick apart, moreso in such vast, heterogeneous groups as 'Muslims' or 'Christians.' Whatever the ingredients in the cake may be, the evidence is stacking up that Muslim immigrants to the West, even the 'moderates,' feel deeply uncomfortable here. Even as they walk among us, they seem to remain stuck on the far side of a civilizational gulf.

So if our first impulse is to call immigrant-skeptics 'bigots,' we would do well to step back and take a fuller look at the data. The discomfort our Muslim newcomers feel is palpable, it is measurable, and it is long-lasting. As its destabilizing effects are becoming more intense, it should come as no surprise that many of us are reluctant to usher even more, refugees or not, into our rapidly fraying societies.

Thank you for reading.

Previously:

Crashing the Gates: A Crash Course, 
I Don't Belong Here,

Arabs and Liberal Democracy, A Primer,

Why We Profile