05 February 2015

I Don't Belong Here

France is still reeling from the Islamist attacks against satirical rag Charlie Hebdo which killed 17.

As commenter Kolia points out, many of the murder victims weren't white indigenous French--an Arab and an Afro cop, four civilian Jews. Does this mean religion trumps race?

The truth is that Arab (and Afro) immigrants to France pose two different kinds of threat to the natives.  The distinction should be made clear.

For Americans, one of these two will look very familiar, and one will not:

  • (1) The daily incivility / insults / beatings / rapes perpetrated by Arabs / Blacks against indigenous white French.  No religious aspect to it at all; pure ethnic minority alienation.
  • (2) The ever-growing calls to bend French values to mirror those of their guests: Single-sex swimming pools, halal meals, legalized polygamy, criminalized blasphemy... The most extreme is the young man radicalized by an imam who tries to launch a caliphate by holy war.

All the world's a-tizzy about (2).  While we admit Islam is a genuine threat to parts of Europe, we're going to swim against the tide and take a look at the more 'banal evil' of (1). Why? This is the everyday brutality the French must live with day in, day out, and it bears a striking resemblance to that aimed at Euro-Americans by their Afro countrymen.  What can the data tell us about hopes of assimilating these two alien minorites on either side of the Atlantic?

I. Lashing out at the majority

Both Arabs in France and Afros in the U.S. have gained a reputation for vicious, unprovoked violence against the majority group.

1) Lashing out--Afros in the U.S.

Afros in the U.S. are known for their violent lashing out at non-Afros.  It's been well-documented in its current form by Colin FlahertyPaul Kersey, and Unamusement Park; as well as the fine folks at American RenaissanceViolence Against Whites, and Top Conservative News; and in its historical form by ourselves on a number of occasions.

For example, in the first week of December 2014,...

  • Paul Birdsall, 71, Oklahoma City, robbed and beaten to death in his home by transient
  • Unnamed man, Berkeley, CA, beaten with hammer by fellow protesters during anti-police protest

  • William Kelley, 42, Sperry, Oklahoma, shot and killed by transient living on his property

...And, we repeat, that's only one week.

Reverse the races on any one and we'd see CNN headlines for months; as is they are simple dog-bites-man stories, everyday black-on-white violence to which no one pays the slightest attention.

2) Lashing Out--Arabs/Afros in France

Undated black-on-white attack, Paris

Arabs (and to a lesser extent Afros) in France are known for similar random anti-white violence. Such things are tough to quantify in a country which forbids tracking criminals' ethnicity.  This blog does the best job we've seen, with an entire section devoted just to the famous 'cigarette beating.'

Tour d'horizon:

  • M. Berkani beats a man for refusing a cigarette, attacks arresting officers, calls them 'fucking French bastards,' Besançon, August 2012.

The similarities we see are the gratuitous nature of the violence--most often nothing is stolen, the beating and insults are for pure pleasure--as well as frequent racial slurs.  We can read here a sense of alienation, lack of belonging, even inferiority.  But where does it come from?  This lashing out is perhaps more symptom than illness. Let's look deeper into the data.

II) Life success indicators

A variety of life success indicators exist to give us a better idea about these two minorities.

[*A note about France:  It is forbidden for the state to gather racial statistics on any population (citizens, prisoners, students, etc.).  However, voluntary polling on national origin or on religious affiliation is allowed. That is where most of the following ethnic data comes from. For this reason, compared to the excellent U.S. data, the French numbers remain largely approximative.]

1) Crime statistics

Both U.S. Afros and French Arabs (and Afros) have been accused of committing crime out of proportion with their numbers.  Hard to track in France due to laws against state-gathered racial statistics, we nonetheless have some clues.

a) Crime: France

A recent parliamentary report revealed the following fact on France's prison population:

('Muslim background,' in France, is a near-perfect stand-in for Arab origin, with some Afros.)

Another comparison of interest is that between regions where (1) violent crime levels are high and (2) the number of Muslims (number of mosques as proxy) is high. Since immigration often tracks urbanity, we offer a look at (3) population density as well (click to enlarge):

Data source: Mosques, Crime, Urbanity

We offer similar data for the Paris area (click to enlarge):

Hugues Lagrange was able to gather concrete data on juvenile delinquency in Paris (where 1 in 5 French live):

These high crime rates for French Arabs are particularly interesting due to the fact that their countries of origin are not considered especially high-crime. Algerian or Moroccan commentators often claim that if these delinquents had grown up on their native soil rather than in France, many would never have so badly lost their way.

For Arabs at least, there is perhaps something to the idea that massive segregation within an alien culture, paired with a permissive French judicial attitude, have taken a touchy situation and made it toxic.

b) Crime: U.S.

The ethnic comparison is much easier to make in the U.S., as the following charts based on federal justice statistics show:

2) Education gaps

Gaps in educational outcomes have been observed for non-Euros in both France and the U.S.

a) Education gaps: France

Hugues Lagrange has gathered data on standardized testing among 6th and 9th graders in Paris:

...As well as testing data broken down by ethnicity and socioeconomic status:

National data exists as well on post-secondary educational attainment:

b) Education gaps : U.S.

For the U.S., where the data is more complete, we can see national ethnic gaps that persist over time (click to enlarge):

3) Neighborhood life

The U.S. and France are both highly urbanized countries.  And ethnic minorities tend to be even more city-dwelling than the general population.  Their experience?

a) Neighborhood life : France

Since the first major race riots in Lyon in 1981, the French government has served up an alphabet soup of 'urban renewal' policies, each more costly and ambitious than the next.

The spin doctors have settled on 'Sensitive Urban Zone' to describe neighborhoods which suffer from, in their words, 'dense population,' 'deterioration,' and 'a lack of businesses relative to the number of residents.' The state plays a sort of whack-a-mole, trying to nip these in the bud by pouring in more money each year, only to see them multiply ever faster.

Some data:

A map of the 'Sensitive Urban Neighborhoods' of France side-by-side with our best proxy of a map of Arabs, 'Number of Mosques.'  Since both of these factors track urbanity, we include a map of population density for comparison (click to enlarge):

We offer similar data for the Paris area (click to enlarge):

                                                                                Data source: Foreign-born, Sensitive neighborhoods, Population density

A research institute has done polling on the national origins of these 'Sensitive Urban Zone' dwellers (click to enlarge):

b) Neighborhood life : U.S.

In the U.S. we have detailed neighborhood-level data on ethnicity, poverty, and crime. Neighborhood Scout regularly compiles a list of the nation's 20 most dangerous neighborhoods.  The 2014 edition:

Segregation is evident on both sides of the Atlantic:  Fischer's census-based racial maps are a testament to the widespread failure of the Post-Segregation project:

4) Unemployment rate

Persistent gaps can be seen in this category as well.

a) Unemployment rate: France

b) Unemployment rate: U.S.

In the U.S., we can even see the evolution over time:

5) Voting patterns

While not a 'life success indicator,' voting patterns are a last point of interest, one in which a small group can have a big impact.

a) Voting patterns: France

'They're only 10% of the population,' the Islamophiles tell us, but pollsters widely reported that at the last presidential election in France (2012), the balance was tipped in favor of the Socialist François Hollande purely due to his landslide among non-Whites.

b) Voting patterns: U.S.

Similarly, the non-Euro vote is changing the political face of America at high speed.

Looking only at our Afro minority's voting patterns, since the 1960s:

III) Demographic future?

We have looked at a variety of indicators that show a troubling lack of integration among U.S. Afros and French Arabs.  Without going into the reasons why, we shall for now focus only on numbers.

Today, France is about 85% White Euro.  In the U.S. this was last true forty years ago, before the Hispanic tidal wave sank it to 65%.

Is the demographic future of these two countries European?

1) New immigrants

While both nations have undergone waves of immigration for centuries, the new arrivals are not exactly like the old.  Who are they?

a) New immigrants: France

Considering the foreign population only--those born in a different country--the numbers have begun to change radically:

b) New Immigrants: U.S.

This is also true in the U.S.:

2) Citizens--Their changing face

France and the U.S. have both undergone a non-Euro immigration explosion since the 1960s.  This has left a 'national' population considerably more diverse.  How diverse?

a) Citizens: France

The number of Muslims isn't counted by the government, but the number of mosques is.  This can give us a hint as to the growth of Arabs (and to a lesser extent, Blacks) among the citizenry over the years:

France's capital city, the most visited in the world, is its pride and joy. One person in five lives in the Paris metro area.  The city, as well as France herself, was once overwhelmingly white. And today?

Estimates based on data sources: Arabs, Blacks, Immigrants, Paris.

b) Citizens: U.S.

The U.S. spent much of its history as a 90% Euro / 10% Afro population.  The 1965 Immigration Act would be this configuration's death knell:

3) The demographic future?

What does all of this portend for the U.S. and France of our grandchildren?

a) The future: France

As Falko Baumgartner has so well explained, a major clue as to the demographic future of France lies buried in an obscure report by a little-known health agency.  Since the year 2000, French authorities have been testing all at-risk newborns for sickle-cell anemia. What babies are considered 'at-risk'? Those for whom both parents have (ethnic) origins in the Maghreb, S.S. Africa, the Antilles, the Middle East, Turkey, Greece, S. Italy, Sicily, Brazil, or Black North America.

The latest edition, 2013:

b) The future: U.S.

As for the U.S., the year 2011 was the first in which non-Euro births outnumbered Euros:

To bring our above graph into the future,

...In answer to our question, then, 'Is the demographic future of these two countries European?', nothing seems less sure.

*     *     *

Our aim here has been only to scratch the surface.  We've pointed out and tried to quantify ethnic gaps in crime, education, employment, neighborhood life, and voting patterns, as well as violent lashing out by non-Euros against the majority.  We offer no solid reasons for these phenomena, though we suspect genetic differences plus a segregation-alienation effect common to many minority groups around the world.

The parallels are only rough. There are major differences between French Arabs and U.S. Afros, most notably their racial and religious distance from the majority population.  Civilisationally, U.S. Blacks have been subsumed by Anglo-America: They know no language but English and no religion but Protestantism. French Arabs, however, are closer genetically to native French, but have immense religious, linguistic, and cultural baggage.

But similarities there are: Both groups make up about one-tenth of the population. They have both been a real part of majority society for about 50 years (post-integration for U.S. Afros, arrival of first immigrants for French Arabs).  Both have a layer that is well-integrated, attached to bourgeois values and obeying the law.  But both also have a violent, alienated underclass that preys on the host population mercilessly, despite the latter's ever-more-frantic attempts to assimilate them.

While Charlie Hebdo and 'the Islamisation of France' are debated ad nauseam for the next several months, we would do well to remember that if all France's Arabs and Blacks were magically Christianized tomorrow, her integration problem would not simply vanish.  There are real ethnic differences, of character traits (impulsitivity, future orientation, clannishness), of cognitive ability, and a host of other factors that cannot be wished or legislated away.

There is no precedent for the successful assimilation of such a large Arab Muslim population into a W. Euro country, just as there is no precedent for the successful assimilation of a large Afro population into a NW Euro country.  As we feel both examples show, religion is just one small part of the equation. Let us open our eyes to all the factors behind these simmering civil wars--on both sides of the Atlantic--lest they go from tepid to hot too quickly for us to react.

See also:

Peter Frost's excellent 'French Lesson'


ckp said...

Minor criticism: the comparison of mosque frequency to violent crime rate is almost certainly mediated by population density alone. Cities attract immigrant labor, and cities breed crime. I'm sure Islam has an independent effect but those particular maps can't support that prima facie judgment.

Emil OW Kirkegaard said...

CKP, violent crime is per capita. Mosques is not however.

ckp said...

Doesn't matter. Violent crime per capita tends to be higher in more densely populated regions so it would show up in such a map regardless of a racial link.

M.G. said...


Thanks for the comment, and it's well-taken. The truth is I wanted to publish this two weeks ago (on the back of my Charlie Hebdo post), but finding decent French data has been hair-pulling to say the least.

I don't knock their 'no ethnicity tracking' policy, I understand it's partly a hangover from the Vichy deportation era, but boy does it make finding good data tricky.

I have fairly good numbers for Paris, but mapping ethnicity over the rest of the country is near impossible. And you're right that urban centers are always crime-heavier, so the mosque comparison isn't very inferential. I think I'll look at population-density maps of the whole country, next to the mosque maps, to try to get a better feel for how matched-up urbanity and Islam really are.

Otherwise perhaps just better to remove those maps and let the rest of the data say what it can. I'll mull it.

ckp said...

If you can track down the raw data you can crunch the numbers and compare correlation coefficients. It's obviously not ideal compared to a regression analysis but it could give a rough feel for which might have bigger explanatory power.

I prefer ordinary scatter graphs to shaded maps on principle because there are cases like this where spurious patterns can appear.

Great work though, I forgot to say!

Californian said...

Once again, great analysis.

RE: Hard to track in France due to laws against state-gathered racial statistics...

Can you give us more details on these laws? Have people been prosecuted for violating these laws?


M.G. said...


Nice to see you. Yes, it has long been forbidden for the government to take ethnic censuses in France. This is partly a nod to the Revolution's 'liberté, égalité, fraternité'--the assimilationist model which is color-blind in regard to its citizens--and partly a 'never-again' reaction to the Vichy regime keeping track of Jews for deportation.

I did see a story about the building manager of a housing project who was fined for keeping stats on how many Arabs, Whites, etc lived on each floor. He was in fact trying to keep a good mix and avoid the 'ghettoization' progressives keep railing about, but that didn't save him.

Odd new development, though: The E.U. has (shockingly) started pushing for affirmative action all over Europe. Color-blind France is violently opposed to it, but has no choice, and has recently been forced to allow limited, voluntary gathering of data on national origins through polling. The sociologists are over the moon and so am I. That is in fact where most of the data in this post comes from.

But it's fascinating to watch the old-guard white liberals fighting against ethnic stats and crying 'race doesn't exist!'--this is happening in Sweden too--while the the colored folks demand to be counted so they can get their goodies. The Americanization of race relations in Europe continues apace...

M.G. said...


Thank you. You are quite right, unhappily many of the research institutes here are loathe to share their raw data, preferring to mete out these endless 'mapped by department' graphics you see. (department = somewhere between a U.S. state and a county) Some do however, and I'm going to take a good hard look this weekend and try to find more precise data.

I'll then modify that part of the post or just remove the maps that might be unhelpful. And keep these kind of comments coming; they're a big help to me as I sometimes get drowned in data and miss the forest for the trees.

Audacious Epigone said...

The Le Farge source on 9th grade proficiency by race and socioeconomic status is interesting. Taking it at face value, class distinctions are better predictors of academic performance than racial markers are. In the US, for example, kids from black households earning six figures score about on par with kids from white households where total income is south of $20k.

JayMan said...

"ckp said...

Doesn't matter. Violent crime per capita tends to be higher in more densely populated regions so it would show up in such a map regardless of a racial link."

You sure about that?

Check out data on crime rates by race by urbanity.

M.G. said...

Audacious Epigone--

Indeed, the gaps in France are quite different. On the graph it looks like the White French--Arab spread runs between 10% and 15%, while the White French--S.S. African spread runs between 18% and 32%.

The white-collar numbers are interesting for S.S. Africans, as you say, quite a change from the U.S. situation (link from 'Unsilenced Science,' not sure if you've blogged about that). France gets a fair bit of African brain drain--anecdotally, I'm always meeting black engineers, mathematicians, I.T. guys, etc. in my line of work, guys whom their countries desperately need but who've chosen the ease of living here.

Most French Afros are 1st or 2nd generation immigrants, and they haven't gone through the decades-long dysgenic welfare experiment U.S. Blacks have.

I also found the split between 'Sahel' (more Muslim) and 'non-Sahel' (less Muslim) S.S. Africans striking. LaFarge is the only one I've seen gather this info. I think he mentioned that the Black Muslims had more 2-parent families and stricter discipline in general than the Christian/Animist-origin Blacks. That's a point I'd like to study more deeply.

ckp said...


Yes, I am quite sure about that. I know it because cities were also noted for high crime rates compared to the countryside in those halcyon days when we didn't have diversity.

M.G. said...

Re: ckp's earlier comment, I've not been able to find the raw data I'd like on Muslim population and crime/sensitive neighborhoods, so I've simply added population density maps in order to give a slightly better picture of where correlations may and may not lie. It's far from perfect, but so be it; if better data comes along I will modify. Thanks again for the suggestions.

Anonymous said...

If density alone is the factor for urban crime, then why are there statistically significant different per capita rates of crime in different high density neighborhoods of the same city that differ only by race? Sorry, but race is the primary factor here.

bop berrigan said...

A couple of comments: It doesn't look like US blacks are increasing in number. It's probably due to their avid use of abortion as a contraceptive. For the Democrats it's a win-win situation. They buy black votes with taxpayer dollars and blacks don't become overly burdensome by taking control of the party. Hispanics are another situation entirely.

M.G. said...

bop berrigan--

Indeed, black proportion of the population hasn't really budged since the end of slavery, it's hovered around 10-13% all this time. The Hispanic tsunami is what is going to fundamentally change the face of the U.S.A. forever.

M.G. said...

Re: Earlier comments, I've now found and added local, municipality-level data for the greater Paris region on violent crime rates, sensitive neighborhood locations, and immigrant population. This is slightly more fine-grained so worth a look I think. Thanks again for comments.

Sheila said...

Another excellent body of work. One quibble, if I may: You note that the US non-hispanic White portion of the population was officially 65% in 2010; I believe it was 62.6%. However, that includes Iranians, Pakistanis, Chechens, and those hispanics who consider themselves White and not hispanic (quite a large proportion of Brazilians and other South Americans who would never be considered White in America). Also note Rihanna was derided as White in Barbados. So in reality, the proportion of genuine, European-origin Whites was perhaps 58% in 2010. Change that to White, European-origin and Christian (even nominal or culturally only) and I'd estimate perhaps 55% at best. Given immigration rates and birth rates, White Europeans will be down to 50% by 2020 at the latest, not 2040.

bop berrigan said...

In considering the "Hispanic tsunami"; have you come across any info on the involvement of the Bush family in converting Mexicans into American citizens? In my opinion electing Jeb Bush as President would accelerate the process.

Californian said...

I've discussed third worlder immigrant violence with various white Europeans. For the most part, they do not quite realize the threat posed by the third worlders. Their general assumption seems to be: Africans and Muslims are basically just like white people but with different complexions; all we have to do is be nice to them and they will behave civilly in return.

There's also been this attitude of looking down on white Americans for all the "racism" in the USA. These Europeans really do not "get" the differences between the races because, until recently, they have not been hit (figuratively and literally) by third worlder violence.

Now maybe they are learning. They've been beaten in their own streets. They've seen their cities burned by rampaging third world hordes. They've seen their children turned into sex slaves. They've seen the No Go zones carved out like barbarian kingdoms in their midst.

But do Europeans have what it takes to resist? Many Europeans I have talked to are against the idea of gun ownership and armed self defense. They see that as some crazy America Wild West thing. They've been so used to their relatively civil societies (especially in Scandinavia) that there's a real cognitive dissonance going on. I think that dissonance is one of the reasons for the suppression of data on the demographics behind the wave of violence. If they had to face the truth, they'd have to face the barbarians inside the gates.

M.G. said...


Sorry for the late reply. You are right, the 'White' numbers no longer reflect a European-only ethnic grouping. I tend to forget how many other origins are now lumped into this category in the U.S. I wonder if there are hard numbers out there, if so I should really change that percentage.

You've also no doubt seen how many of these groups are pushing to NOT be called 'White' on the census in order to get the A.A. goodies. So much for 'white privilege.'

M.G. said...

bop berrigan--

I haven't, I confess I'm quite ignorant on the matter as I don't follow horse race politics very well. What mystifies me though is watching the white Conquistador-Mexicans happily dumping their mestizo underclass on us (makes sense) while at the same time white Conquistador-Americans happily usher them in (why?). Is there any real advantage to us in absorbing the poorest one-fifth of Mexico?

M.G. said...


You've just described France to a T. The naiveté about ethnic differences, the snobbery towards American racism ('we took in all your jazz singers during Jim Crow'), the disdain for gun culture, and the slow waking up to the multicult hell they've created.

To their credit though, a great many are waking up, which explains Le Pen's huge numbers lately. If you'd told the average Frenchy 15 years ago that the FN would get ever get these results he'd have called you crazy.

But my nose tells me to trust Latins more than Teutonics when it comes to turning back the immivasion. Mediterraneans seem to have retained some level of in-group loyalty that has been all but decimated in northern Euros. Scandinavia is obviously ground zero for this geno-suicide, with the UK galloping at a close second.

Seeing Europe's ferociously bloody past, one can be led to think they have some fight in them. But what if they've purely and simply bred those traits out of themselves? Then it's game over. Any of these virile, clannish outgroups can quietly take over without a shot being fired.

jewamongyou said...

Thanks for the excellent, and comprehensive, analysis. I hope you don't mind if I reblog it.

M.G. said...


Thank you for the kind words, and you're welcome to reblog anything here you may find of interest.

Cutiepaws said...

What is the scale of the France maps for the population density?