Who's Replacing Whom? Western Europe: France

[This piece was originally published on June 30th 2022, but was erased due to a technical glitch. Happily, the Wayback Machine has saved our bacon. Here it is again.]

The recent presidential election in France saw a new face on the scene: That of Eric Zemmour.

His major campaign theme was that France's indigenous population was being replaced by outsiders who are culturally foreign, with the zealous support of the globalist right and the open-borders left.

 

The name of this transformation? 'The Great Replacement.'

Socialist, homosexual... And 'Great Replacement' theorist: Renaud Camus

This notion is endorsed explicitly by Eric Zemmour's Reconquest party, and implicitly by Marine LePen's National Rally. Together, these two parties gobbled up 30% of the votes, more than President Macron's centrist Republic on the Move party (28%).

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The Great Replacement is an idea referred to as 'far-right' by the mainstream press, implying that it is somehow a marginal notion.

 

Yet opinion polls in France show that this belief is anything but extreme. No less than sixty-one percent of French voters think that it is a reality.

 

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Are they right?

 

And what of the rest Europe? And the Anglosphere? 

 

 

I. France

 

Subway station, Paris 2019

1) Non-European Immigration

 

It is illegal to ask for ethnicity on French census forms. Demographers must find other ways to tease out the reality of population change in France.

 

Demographer Michèle Tribalat, of the National Demographic Institute, says:  

In 2011, 19.2 % of the total population of metropolitan France are of foreign origin on two generations. Under 60, this proportion is nearing 30 % if we include a third generation.

Demographer Cris Beauchemin, who works at the National Demographic Institute:   

If we take the first, second, and third generations, we can estimate that two people out of five in France are descended from immigrants.

 Middle school students, Seine Saint-Denis

Pascal Blanchard, researcher at France's National Scientific Research Institute (and avowed progressive):   

One quarter of French people are descended from non-European immigrants (most often from the ex-colonies) if we go back three or four generations, and another quarter have at least one grandparent descended from European immigrants.

 

But to really measure a great replacement, one must look at the population under age 18, those who in twenty or thirty years will be running the show--and having the babies.

The following maps show the under-18 population which has at least one foreign parent, born outside of Europe, both in the 1960s and today. The vast majority from 'outside of Europe' arrive from North Africa (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia), Sub-Saharan Africa, and Turkey.

 

Be careful! Bear in mind that these maps do not show ALL the immigrant-descended population: Many Arab and African youngsters in France today had both their parents and grandparents born in France.  If the maps included children of third- or fourth-generation Arab/African descendance, these numbers would be much higher.

Here is the greater Paris metro area, where one out of five French people live:

Paris 'intra-muros,' once home to a large white working class, is made up mostly of millionaires and housing projects at this point. A glance at the 2017 map will quickly tell you which is where.

A zoom into two of Paris's suburbs, the infamous Seine Saint-Denis:

...And Val-de-Marne:

France's second city, Marseille, on the Mediterranean coast:

And Paris's third city, Lyon:

Image source for maps

But what about France's mid-sized cities? Here is a snapshot of the under-18 population born, or whose parents were born, outside of Europe, in 20 French cities. (Mainly Africa, North Africa and Turkey)

 

Keep in mind that these stats don't count those whose grandparents or great-grandparents were non-European immigrants—although that describes millions of children in France. So in reality, in many of these cities, the under-18 population is far more non-Euro than the numbers indicate.

 

Data source

But all this data is approximative. Again, due to lack of an ethnic census in France, one must resort to subterfuge to get a read on real population change.

 

One way has been to look at the number of newborns screened each year for sickle-cell anemia.

These tests are only given to babies born of parents with ethnic roots in Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, India, Greece, Southern Italy, or South America.

 

But there are vanishingly few immigrants to France from any of those places, except the first three: Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and Turkey. So the stats on sickle-cell testing are more or less a proxy for Blacks, Arabs, and Turks.

 

Data source

 

Why are we using the data from 2016? Once the national health agency caught on that anti-immigrationists were looking at these numbers, they conveniently stopped publishing them. At the same time, they're now calling for systematic sickle-cell testing of all newborns in France.   Such a program would be both costly and pointless, but no proposal is too far-fetched when it comes to covering up the demographic revolution in progress.

 

 

2) Muslim Immigration

Street prayer in Marseille

The non-indigenous population in France, as we have seen, is clearly growing at breakneck speed.

 

But what about the Muslim population specifically?

Marseille: jewel on the Mediterranean, and 35% Muslim

Marseille, France's second city, is a sprawling metropolis on the Mediterranean coast.

Abderrahaman Ghoul, vice president of the regional Muslim council, claims that Marseille counts 300,000 Muslims—that is, 35% of the city's population. The city's 72 mosques are supposedly not enough for all the faithful, who have requested the right to construct several more. 

Lyon was once France's second city, today in third place behind Paris and Marseille. It was a Roman provincial capital, and archeological treasures are unearthed seemingly every time a parking lot is dug up.

Lyon, view from the Basilica Notre Dame de Fourvière

The mayor's office recently let slip that roughly 40% of the city's schoolchildren are Muslim.  This is the percentage of parents requesting non-meat meals for their kids in the cafeteria. A city of vegetarians? Not at all, admits the previous mayor Gérard Collomb: 'The meat served in our cafeterias isn't halal, and Muslims refuse to eat it.'

The Great Mosque of Lyon

 

But it's not just France's big cities which are undergoing demographic turbulence. According to the leaders of Muslim organizations in these towns, Mulhouse (on the German border)   is already 30% Muslim, Avignon ('the city of Popes')  35%, and Roubaix (near the Belgian border)  40%.

 

Baby names

France forbids counting ethnicities, but they do count every baby name given each year. 

The website François de Souche compiles an annual 'Baby Name Barometer' for each region of France, showing how many typically Arab or Muslim names are given each year. (France's Arab population is notorious for refusing to give French names to their kids, even after four generations, unlike East Asian immigrants who do so immediately upon arrival.)

 

Here is the total for France, 1969 to 2019:

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Here is a map with the 2020 rate, by region:

 

Data source

 

The counties making up the greater Paris area tell an interesting story over time:

 

Image source

The Parisian suburb of Seine Saint-Denis, home to 1.7 million people, shows an amazing transformation over 40 years:

 

Data sources: 1980 and 2020

 

According to the National Statistics Institute, immigrant fertility in France is at 2.73 children per women, while for native French women that is 1.80. But 'immigrant' is defined as a woman born in a different country. And 'native French' includes any women born in France, even of Arab or African descent. So the fertility rate for ethnically French women is likely a bit lower.

 

Muslim leaders themselves vaunt their immense numbers. Ahmet Ogras, president of the French Muslim Council (and ethnic Turk), declared in a recent radio interview:

Ahmet Ogras and Emmanuel Macron

'Today we have more than 10 million Muslims in France. [Out of 65 million citizens.] When I met an Algerian counterpart, he told me there are more than 6 million Algerian-descended French citizens. There are more than 3.5 million Moroccan-descended French citizens. There are 800,000 Turk-descended, and 800,000 Tunisian-descended. 

We're at even more than 10 million. Today you can't underestimate us, we're at 10 million. When you walk down the street in Paris, just look at the ratio [of non-whites to whites].'

Muslim politicians aren't offended by the idea of a 'Great Replacement'--they're openly celebrating it. From the UFMD (Union of French Muslim Democrats):

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France, it has thus been shown, is marching blithely towards demographic replacement in the decades to come.

But what of her neighbors?

To be continued...