2020 Census: Who's Fleeing Whom?

Fisher's famous census maps from 2010

Nearly ten years ago, after the 2010 U.S. Census results came out, we did a deep-dive into the shifting ethnic make-up of America's cities.

 

Delayed due to Covid, the 2020 Census numbers are finally out. So here’s our ‘Who’s Fleeing Whom?’ series, updated for 2020.

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Why did we write this piece? Though black criminality in North America has always surpassed that of Euros, separating oneself from Afro neighbors was not difficult for the first 350 years of British North America / the United States.  Even in the North, segregation in housing was permitted de facto where it was not de jure.

 

The 'Great Migration,' waves of Afros moving from the South to the North, began in earnest in 1910, with its second wave after WWII (1945).

Image source

 

However, the flight of Euro-Americans out of the cities did not truly begin until Blacks were free to live where they pleased-- the 1960s.  Since then, a sort of merry-go-round has ensued:  Whites, suffering under Afro dysfunction, flee to suburbs, only to be pursued by the Talented Tenth fleeing same.  The latter are followed, as night follows day, by the Untalented Nine-Tenths, who promptly re-create the urban chaos they left behind. Euro-Americans are forced to pack up, and the musical chairs begin again.

 

We can in fact watch the flight unfold before our eyes via U.S. Census numbers. 

1910: Before the Great Migration got underway: Our first figures (where available).

1960: Just before the end of Segregation.

1980: Fast-forward twenty years to see what the first wave of 'White Flight' has wrought.

2020: Finally, the most recent figures. Enter en masse Hispanics, who did not even exist as a census category two generations ago, and Asians, who have flooded in recently.

 

So, one-fifth of the way into our new century : Who's fleeing whom?

 

 

 1. The Midwest

We start with the Midwest, industrial center and destination of choice for the Great Migrators:

 

 

 

Detroit is the largest American city to be 80% black. It has the nation's third highest murder rate (among big cities)  as well as the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Chicago hemorrhaged citizens the first decade of this century. The teens have seen a slight uptick in population.

 

 

Once-peaceful Cleveland was in 2019 ranked 7th in the U.S. (large cities) in murder rate, 3rd in rape and 2nd in robbery.

One of the few majority-white big cities in its region, Indy's Euro population has nonetheless fallen from 59% to 50% these last ten years.

 

St. Louis had the highest murder rate in the U.S. in 2019 (all cities) by a very large margin. It was #3 in both aggravated assault and robbery.

 

Milwaukee is #5 in the nation in aggravated assault and #7 in robbery (large cities).

Des Moines is now 16% Hispanic and 7% Asian, while its white share has fallen from 71% to 65% since the last census.

K.C. has the 6th-highest murder rate in the nation as of 2019 (large cities).

Racial strife-ridden Minneapolis is now 19% black, 10% Hispanic, and 6% Asian.

 

 

 2. The East Coast

The great cities of the East Coast tell us their demographic story:

 

The great push by Whites to gentrify NYC by pricing out minorities... is it working? Blacks have fallen from 25% to 20% of the population since 2010.

 

Newark was decimated by white flight after the 1960s riots. Blacks and Hispanics have now almost completely succeeded in pushing out Whites.

After Chicago, Philly is #2 in murder rate for cities over 1 million residents.

 

A huge gentrifying push is underway in D.C., with the black population falling from 51% to 41% these last ten years.

 

Baltimore consistently ranks in the most dangerous U.S. cities: Currently #1 in robbery, #2 in murder, #5 in burglary (for large cities).

Boston is down to 45% white in 2020, but black share has fallen from 24% to 19%.

We've included two far north-eastern cities, considered some of the 'whitest' in the country.  Will these enclaves stay that way?

 

 Both hovering at around 80% white... for how long?

 3. The South

The South has lived a different racial story since colonial times.  Home to plantation slavery and thus to most of the U.S.'s Blacks before 1910, she lost millions in the following decades to the industrial centers of the North.

 

The demographic (and crime) differences between the two Tennessee cities below have been remarked upon.

Memphis is 2nd ranked in aggravated assault, 5th in robbery, 8th in murder (large cities).

Nashville is just over 53% white, and its black share has fallen from 28% to 24%.

 

Since 2010, Charlotte has gone from 45% to 40% white, and from 35% to 33% black. Hispanics from 13% to 16%, and Asians from 5% to 7%.

 

 

 

Atlanta is the 'black mecca' and concentrates much of the wealth of America's old-guard Afro elite. Paul Kersey has well covered the racial merry-go-round between city and suburbs in this 'city too busy to hate.'

 

In 2011 Birmingham underwent what was then the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. In 2019, it was the 3rd most murderous U.S. city (all cities).

 

 

The Big Easy had the 4th-highest murder rate in 2019 and was #1 for rape (large cities).

 

 Though technically a Southern city, Miami has become more Latin American than heritage American, currently standing at 70% Hispanic.

 

 

 4. The Great Basin

Home to some of the last real 'Whitopias' in the country, the Great Basin states are nonetheless diversifying in their way, especially due to Hispanics.

 

Omaha's Hispanic and Asian populations have crept up to 16% and 6%, respectively.

How far will the hispanifying of Denver go? The city stands at 28% Hispanic as of 2020.

The Mormon capital's Hispanic population has jumped from 13% to 21% these last ten years.

 Big Sky Country remains largely ethnic-Euro, with vanishingly few Afros but a growing Hispanic presence (7% and 9% for Billings and Boise).

5. The Southwest

The Southwest is of course under immense demographic pressure from Latin America.  This region lives its own story, with parts of Anglo-America perhaps already extinct here.  (As the 'Hispanic' census category did not exist then, all pre-1980 'White' figures must be assumed to contain Hispanic presence.)

 

 

Alongside the Hispanic incursion, these two cities are undergoing waves of Chinese and Indian influx. 

Texas is clearly on its way to becoming a part of greater Latin America, whether de jure or de facto.

The white population of Las Vegas has fallen from 48% to 40% these last ten years.

Whites and Hispanics now neck-and-neck in Phoenix.

Little change in Albuquerque since 2010, though Whites are down 4 percentage points.

 6. The West Coast

The West Coast is home to a centuries-old Asian presence which seems to have jumped after the 1965 Immigration Act.  What will be the fallout if current trends continue?

  

 

 

Will the ethnic cleansing of L.A.'s Blacks by its Hispanic gangs continue apace?

 

San Francisco and San Jose: Headed for a Euro-Asian overclass and an Afro-Hispanic underclass?

Wealthy Whites and Asians are said to be fleeing the city by the bay due to leftist mismanagement... Is it true? Since 2010 Whites are down 3%, but Asians are up 1%.

 

Silicon Valley's capital, the richest city in the U.S., seems to be pricing out Blacks almost entirely.

 

 

The black percentage of Oakland has dropped from 28% to 21% these last ten years, as the gentrifiers creep in.

 

The Whites of the Pacific Northwest have long sung the praises of people of color, from afar. Are the objects of their affection finally moving into their cities? 

Seattle's white population has fallen from 66% to 59%, while its Asians have jumped from 14% to 17% since the last census.

 Portland's white share has fallen from 72% to 66% these last ten years.

 

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A nation is not a stretch of ground; it's a people.  The demography of the urban U.S. is changing faster than it ever has.  Housing policy, criminal justice, immigration policy have all brought us here. Will the face of the nation change irrevocably in this century?

 

Has it already ?

 

Thank you for reading.

Previously:

Who Is Fleeing Whom?